In the age of uncertainty, conviction trumps prediction

In modern business, uncertainty has become the norm. Adding to geopolitical shifts, volatile markets, and post-pandemic realities is the unpredictable evolution of artificial intelligence. How can companies thrive when the horizon is all but obscured?

At the recent Rakuten AI Optimism 2026, Rakuten Group Executive Vice President Ryo Matsumura sat down with Professor Akie Iriyama of the Waseda Business School to discuss this shifting landscape. Iriyama, who serves on the boards of five major companies, outlined his bold new playbook for leadership.

“Just when we thought COVID was over, the geopolitical situation exploded, resource prices surged, the yen weakened, and inflation hit,” Iriyama noted. “On top of all that, we have the emergence of AI and the insane pace of technological progress… For better or worse, this is the world we’re living in.”

Getting gut-level buy-in

Corporate strategy has long relied heavily on analytical precision, with planning departments spending months crafting meticulous mid-term business plans and market forecasts. Iriyama argued that this approach is obsolete when even the developers building our future can’t predict what the rest of the decade will look like.

“An acquaintance of mine asked a top-tier expert right at the absolute epicenter of AI in Silicon Valley what global AI will look like in three years. They replied, I have absolutely no idea,” Iriyama told the Optimism audience. “Demanding analytical accuracy under these conditions is futile. What matters is plausibility and buy-in.”

When it’s not possible to accurately forecast the future, leadership must shift from predicting what will happen to declaring what the company intends to make happen.

“Everyone, from executives on down, must buy into a shared mindset: We may not know the exact outcome, but we can say this is who we are, this is our passion, and this is the future we want to build together,” Iriyama continued. “When leadership, employees, customers, investors, and local communities buy into that vision, you build momentum. That’s what allows you to sustain change and innovation.”

Iriyama pointed to Rakuten’s entry into the telecommunications market as a prime example. On paper, the saturated, capital-intensive market made little rational sense, and observers were skeptical. But Rakuten pushed forward.

“That happens because the executive team shares a deep conviction: If we capture the mobile market, we can build an incredible ecosystem and fundamentally transform Japan,” Iriyama explained. “In my view, the defining trait of a great company is having an unshakeable big picture or big vision… Having everyone aligned on where you are ultimately going is paramount. Tactics matter, but destination comes first.”

Japan’s decision-making deficit

Establishing this destination is critical, but Iriyama pointed out that traditional corporate structures in Japan are ill-equipped to navigate the ambiguity required to get there.

“The reason Japanese people struggle with this is very clear: the upcoming era lacks clear-cut answers due to extreme uncertainty. What is urgently needed are individuals who can make decisive choices in the absence of a correct answer.”

The issue begins in education, which in Japan focuses heavily on finding a single correct answer. This mindset is compounded by corporate cultures that withhold real-world decision-making authority for decades; employees in their 20s to 40s spend years executing top-down tasks with pre-existing answers.

“Then, when they reach executive levels in their 50s, they are suddenly asked to make major decisions without a playbook,” Iriyama noted. “They freeze because they’ve never done it before.”

He contrasted this with startup founders, who make high-stakes decisions on a daily basis.

“Making a risky investment while in the red, apologizing to an angry client, or firing a toxic manager,” he argued. “To build an agile organization, you need people who are comfortable making calls without a safety net, and Japan currently faces a major shortage of such talent.”

Radical transparency

Making calls without a safety net guarantees inevitable missteps, so a modern company must be agile enough to pivot when necessary. But constant course corrections can exhaust a workforce if leadership refuses to acknowledge its errors.

“Business going forward will be entirely about rapid course corrections,” Iriyama asserted. “When uncertainty is high, you will fail and make mistakes. The worst thing a leader can do is hide their mistakes or feel embarrassed by them. Leaders are human and will make missteps. A leader or organization that can openly say, ‘Ah, my bad, that was wrong, let’s go this way instead!’ is infinitely stronger.”

However, corporate instincts often point the other way. “Japanese companies in general are terrible at this,” Iriyama noted. “They fear failure and hide it when it happens. Or they recognize a failure but refuse to pivot, charging straight off a cliff in the same direction. That is the most painful path.”

He recalled a conversation held with Taiwan’s former Digital Minister, Audrey Tang, regarding how the Taiwanese government maintained such immense public trust during the chaotic early days of the pandemic, despite constantly changing policies. The secret, Tang revealed, was radical transparency.

“In today’s world, trying to hide things fails because details inevitably leak,” Iriyama warned. “You make everything as transparent as possible: We will make mistakes, so we share the process transparently. Sorry, we messed up on that, but here’s how we fix it. A leader and a company must be capable of doing that.”

The fate of the midstream

With AI rapidly reshaping white-collar work, Iriyama highlighted an impending smile curve of labor value. He divided work into three segments: upstream, midstream and downstream.

Upstream roles (deciding vision, making high-stakes decisions without a playbook, taking responsibility) will surge in value. Downstream roles (the physical, frontline execution that AI cannot fully replicate) will also remain highly valuable.

The danger lies in the middle. “Middle management and back-office roles that merely pass information up and down will see their value drop close to zero due to AI automation.”

But there is a silver lining for the domestic market.

“Fortunately, due to Japan’s labor shortage and aging population, we don’t need mass layoffs like those potentially facing the U.S. Instead, we must help middle management transition,” Iriyama continued. “This requires more than light reskilling – it requires a complete metamorphosis.”

Traditional corporate hierarchies will need to be dismantled in favor of small, cross-functional amoeba teams. By breaking massive departments down to 5-to-6-person units in which roles are fluid – salespeople might write code, and engineers join sales calls – companies can build agility.

“These small, flexible teams operate like the U.S. Marines – highly adaptable units deployed into uncertain environments, making quick decisions on the ground,” Iriyama explained. Facing micro-failures every day in these agile units, employees can build the vital decision-making muscle that heavily layered companies lack.

Make change a habit

To navigate this uncertain world, Iriyama offered some practical advice for professionals at every level: stop waiting for massive strategic pivots, and start practicing micro-changes today.

“People fear change simply because it’s unfamiliar,” Iriyama remarked. “On your way home today, get off at a different train station. It’s a tiny change, but it exposes you to something new without fear. Doing small new things daily desensitizes you to the discomfort of change.”

Coupled with this habit of daily adaptation, Iriyama challenged the Rakuten AI Optimism crowd to actively communicate their ambitions.

“Since nobody can accurately predict what AI or the world will look like in three years, give yourself permission to imagine the future you want to see,” he said. “Talk regularly with colleagues and friends about big, visionary ideas: What kind of future do we want to create? How can our company make a meaningful impact? This identity work builds the underlying conviction needed to lead through uncertainty.”

When no one can accurately predict what the future holds, the most resilient organizations won’t be the ones with the best forecasts, but the ones with the strongest conviction to build it themselves.

“What companies need moving forward is a vision of the future that commands conviction, clarity on what they want to achieve, and the underlying philosophy or ethos to back it up. Companies that possess this are strong, without a doubt.”